A systems dynamics approach to climate change policies in soybean production and transportation in Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14488/BJOPM.2978.2026Keywords:
Integrated assessment model, Sustainable agriculture, Decarbonization, No-tillagAbstract
Goal: The growing demand for food and the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions require sustainable solutions in the agricultural sector, particularly in the transportation of commodities such as soybeans. This study evaluates the combined impact of transportation policies and sustainable agricultural practices on the soybean supply chain in Brazil, utilizing an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) based on System Dynamics (SD).
Design/methodology/approach: The model simulates various public policy scenarios, including the National Logistics Plan (PNL35), alongside agricultural practices such as No-Tillage Systems (NTS) and the Legal Reserve Law (LRL).
Results: The results indicate that PNL35 has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 23%, albeit constrained by logistical costs. The expansion of NTS and LRL enhances carbon sequestration, offsetting a portion of transport emissions.
Limitations of the investigation: A limitation of this study is that it does not fully account for infrastructure constraints and dependence on external funding, which may pose significant financial and regulatory barriers to the practical implementation of the proposed strategies.
Practical implications: The study provides practical insights for policymakers and agribusiness managers by showing that integrating transport infrastructure planning with sustainable farming practices can significantly reduce Brazil’s soybean supply chain emissions and support national decarbonization goals.
Originality/Value: The study underscores the importance of integrating transportation policies and sustainable agricultural practices to achieve decarbonization targets in the sector.
Downloads
References
Allegretti, G., Santos, O. I., Hasenack, H., Bauaze, I. X., Riva, F., Mores, G. V., & Talamini, E. (2018). “Environmental globalization: A Brazilian viewpoint on agribusiness and natural resources. J. Agribus. Dev. Emerg. Econ., 8(3), 454–460. https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-02-2017-0022
Agência Nacional dos Transportes Terrestres (ANTT). (2014a). Inventário nacional de emissões atmosféricas por veículos automotores rodoviários: Relatório final ano-base 2013. Brasília, Brazil: ANTT.
Agência Nacional dos Transportes Terrestres (ANTT). (2014b). Acompanhamento das concessões ferroviárias: Relatório anual 2013. Brasília, Brazil: ANTT.
Barrage, L., & Nordhaus, W. D. (2024). Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 121(13). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.231203012
Bass, F. M. (1969). A new product growth for model consumer durables. Manag. Sci., 15(5), 215–227 http://www.jstor.org/stable/2628128
Boston Consulting Group (BCG). (2023). Seed of the future: Brazil’s agriculture fostering climate transition. https://web-assets.bcg.com/97/6a/ca8d1057436a81d4e0a94beab6a1/en-report-brazil-seed-of-the-future.pdf
Bieluczyk, W., Cherubin, M. R., Cerri, C. E. P., Siqueira-Neto, M., Abdalla-Filho, A. L., Castro, J. I. A., & Locatelli, J. L. (2024). Greenhouse gas fluxes in Brazilian climate-smart agricultural and livestock systems: A systematic and critical overview. J. Clean. Prod., 464, 142782. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142782
Brasil. (2013). Resolução nº 4194, de 19 de novembro de 2013. Brasília, Brazil: ANTT.
Cheng, H., Yu, Q., Qi, Z., Bukovsky, M. S., Xue, L., Jin, V. L., Ma, L., Harmel, R. D., Chen, X., Ji, S., Miao, L., & Feng, S. (2023). Simulating synergistic effects of climate change and conservation practices on greenhouse gas emissions and crop growth in long-term maize cropping systems. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 215, 108404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2023.108404
Dekker, R., Bloemhof, J., & Mallidis, I. (2012). Operations research for green logistics: An overview of aspects, issues, contributions and challenges. Eur. J. Oper. Res., 219(3), 671–679 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2011.11.010
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA). (2019). Custo de produção de soja convencional no sistema plantio direto, safra 2015/2016, na região do Cone Sul de Rondônia (Comunicado técnico). Porto Velho, RO: EMBRAPA.https://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/205161/1/COT-410-Final.pdf
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA). (2021). ABC: Low Carbon Agriculture (Infoteca-e). Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária. https://www.infoteca.cnptia.embrapa.br/infoteca/bitstream/doc/1135495/1/pt2-2021.pdf
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE). (2022). Estudos do plano decenal de expansão de energia 2031: Demanda energética do setor de transportes. https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/Documents/PDE%202031_RevisaoPosCP_rvFinal_v2.pdf
Brazilian Enterprise for Planning and Logistics (EPL), & Institute of Energy and Environment (IEMA). (2021). Metodologia EPL IEMA para emissões de GEE e poluentes locais. Acordo de Cooperação Técnica – EPL e IEMA. https://energiaeambiente.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/20210628_EPL_IEMA.pdf
Faria, C. H. F., Almeida, J. F. F., & Pinto, L. R. (2024). Simulation-optimisation approach for sustainable planning of intermodal logistics in the Brazilian grain export industry. Decis. Anal. J., 10, 100388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dajour.2023.100388
Federação Brasileira do Sistema de Plantio Direto (FEBRAPDP). (2023). Evolução da área sob plantio direto no Brasil. https://plantiodireto.org.br/area-de-pd (accessed January 2024)
Ferreira Filho, J. B. de S., & Horridge, M. (2016). Climate change impacts on agriculture and internal migrations in Brazil. Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-262. Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
Ferreira, L. J., & Marques, L. (2022). Cultural traits, infrastructure and feedback mechanisms as barriers to supply chain management in Brazil. Gestão & Produção, 29, e159 https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9649-2022v29e159
Fiddaman, T. S. (1997). Feedback complexity in integrated climate-economy models (Doctoral dissertation). Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA.
Frank, S., Havlik, P., Stehfest, E., van Meijl, H., Humpenöder, F., & Popp, A. (2021). Agricultural non-CO₂ emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5°C target. Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 230–240 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0358-8
Gasques, J. G., Bastos, E. T., Bacchi, M. R. P., & Vieira Filho, J. E. R. (2022). Produtividade total dos fatores na agricultura – Brasil e países selecionados. Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA). Retrieved from https://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/bitstream/11058/11199/1/td_2764.pdf
Gidden, M. J., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Fujimori, S., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., ... & Rogelj, J. (2019). Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: A dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. Geosci. Model Dev., 12(4), 1443–1475. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019
Greaves, G. (2015). Evaluation of the DICE climate-economy integrated assessment (MPRA Paper 64588). University Library of Munich, Germany. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/64588
Godfray, H. C. J., & Garnett, T. (2014). Food security and sustainable intensification. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci., 369(1639), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0273
Hedayati, M., Brock, P. M., Nachimuthu, G., & Schwenke, G. (2019). Farm-level strategies to reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of cotton production: An Australian perspective. J. Clean. Prod., 212, 974–985. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.190
Hogarth, J. R. (2017). Evolutionary models of sustainable economic change in Brazil: No-till agriculture, reduced deforestation and ethanol biofuels. Environ. Innov. Soc. Transit., 24, 130–141 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2016.08.001
Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE). (2024). Indicadores anuais de produtividade total dos fatores. Observatório da Produtividade Regis Bonelli. https://ibre.fgv.br/observatorio-produtividade/temas/indicadores-anuais-de-produtividade-total-dos-fatores (acessed Jan 2024)
ICC Brasil. (2023). Opportunities for Brazil in carbon markets. https://www.iccbrasil.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/231214_EXECUTIVE-SUMARY_ICCBR_2023_IN.pdf (acessed Jan 2024)
Instituto Mato-Grossense de Economia e Agropecuária (IMEA). (2017). Entendendo o mercado da soja: Workshop jornalismo agropecuário. IMEA.
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2013). IPCC Factsheet: What is the IPCC? http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/factsheets/fs_what_ipcc.pdf
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA). (2014). Hidrovias no Brasil: Perspectiva histórica, custos e institucionalidade. Brasília, Brazil: IPEA.
ITF (2019), Assessing Regulatory Changes in the Transport Sector: Summary and Conclusions, ITF Roundtable Reports, No. 180 OECD Publishing, Paris. https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/regulatory-changes-transport-sector_0.pdf
Jensen, H., Pérez Domínguez, I., Fellmann, T., Lirette, P., Hristov, J., & Philippidis, G. (2019). Economic impacts of a low carbon economy on global agriculture: The bumpy road to Paris. Sustainability, 11, 2349. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082349
Jiang, Y., Bukhari, A. A. A., Bukhari, W. A. A., & Khamdamov, S.-J. (2025). Integrating green finance and energy transitions for decarbonization: Policy pathways to achieve COP-29 goals in E7 economies. J. Environ. Manage., 382, 125217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125217
Kim, D.-H., Her, Y., & Jang, T. (2025). Climate-resilient optimization of spatially targeted conservation practices for cost-effective rice paddy management. Agricultural Systems, 230, 104486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104486
KPMG. (2023). Net Zero Readiness Report: Brazil. https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/br/pdf/2024/01/NetZero_Readiness_Report_2023_Brasil.pdf
Laboratório de Processamento de Imagens e Geoprocessamento (LAPIG), Universidade Federal de Goiás. (2023). Atlas das pastagens. https://atlasdaspastagens.ufg.br/ (acessed January 2024)
Lu, J., Church, S. P., Ranjan, P., Usher, E. M., & Prokopy, L. S. (2024). Bridging systems thinking mindsets and farm management: The role of agricultural conservation planning in farmers’ adoption of conservation practices. Journal of Rural Studies, 111, 103372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2024.103372
Maia, S. M. F., Medeiros, A. S., Santos, T. C., Lyra, G. B., Lal, R., Assad, E. D., & Pellegrino, C. E. (2022). Potential of no-till agriculture as a nature-based solution for climate-change mitigation in Brazil. Soil Tillage Res., 220, 105368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2022.105368
Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA). (2019). Projeções do agronegócio: Brasil 2018/19 a 2028/29 – Projeções de longo prazo (Secretaria de Política Agrícola). Brasília, Brazil: MAPA/ACE.
Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA). (2020). Diretrizes para o desenvolvimento sustentável da agropecuária brasileira. https://www.gov.br/agricultura/pt-br/assuntos/sustentabilidade/publicacoes-diversas/diretrizes-para-o-desenvolvimento-sustentavel-da-agropecuaria-brasileira.pdf
Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA). (2023a). Projeções do agronegócio Brasil 2022/23 a 2032/33 – Projeções de longo prazo. https://www.gov.br/agricultura/pt-br/assuntos/politica-agricola/todas-publicacoes-de-politica-agricola/projecoes-do-agronegocio/projecoes-do-agronegocio-2022-2023-a-2032-2033.pdf/view (acessed August 2023)
Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA). (2023b). Plano ABC: Dez anos de sucesso e uma nova forma sustentável de produção agropecuária (Secretaria de Inovação, Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Irrigação e Cooperativismo). Brasília, Brazil: MAPA/SDI. http://192.168.3.118:8080/handle/1/2117
Martha Jr, G. B., Alves, E., & Contini, E. (2012). Land-saving approaches and beef production growth in Brazil. Agric. Syst., 110, 173–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.03.001
Martins, L. A. S., Silveira, J. M., Bonomi, A., & Ghosh, S. (2024). Long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion in the MATOPIBA region of Brazil: A system dynamics approach. Environ. Dev. Sustain. Ambio, 53, 1722–1736 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02058-9
McKay, M. D., Beckman, R. J., & Conover, W. J. (1979). A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code. Technometrics, 21(2), 239–245.
Ministry of Infrastructure, Brazilian Enterprise for Planning and Logistics (EPL). (2021). Brazilian’s National Logistics Plan – NLP 2035. https://ontl.epl.gov.br/planejamento-pnl-2035/
McKinnon, A. (2018). Decarbonizing logistics: Distributing goods in a low carbon world. Kogan Page.
Momm, H. G., ElKadiri, R., Bingner, R. L., Moore, K., & Wells, R. R. (2024). Long term conservation practice effects on agricultural soil loss from concentrated and distributed sources. Journal of Environmental Management, 371, 123278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123278
Newton, P., Gomez, A. E. A., Jung, S., Kelly, T., Mendes, T. d. A., Rasmussen, L. V., dos Reis, J. C., Rodrigues, R. d. A. R., Tipper, R., van der Horst, D., & Watkins, C. (2016). Overcoming barriers to low carbon agriculture and forest restoration in Brazil: The Rural Sustentável project. World Development Perspectives, 4, 5–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2016.11.011
Nordhaus, W. D. (1992). An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Science, 258, 1315–1319. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2880417
Nordhaus, W. (1994). Managing the global commons: The economics of climate change. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Nordhaus, W. D., & Yang, Z. (1996). A regional dynamic general-equilibrium model of alternative climate-change strategies. Am. Econ. Rev., 86(4), 741–765 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2118303
Nordhaus, W. D. (2013). Integrated economic and climate modeling. Handb. CGE Model., Vol. 1 Set. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-59568-3.00016-X
Nordhaus, W. (2014). Estimates of the social cost of carbon: Concepts and results from the DICE-2013R model and alternative approaches. J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ., 1(1/2), 273–312. https://doi.org/10.1086/676035
Nordhaus, W. D. (2017). Revisiting the social cost of carbon. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 114(7) https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1609244114
Nordhaus, W. (2018). Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017. Clim. Change, 148, 623–640. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2218-y
Nordhaus, W. D. (2020). Scientific and economic background on DICE models. https://sites.google.com/site/williamdnordhaus/dice-rice (acessed March 2020)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2023). Environmental tax (Indicator). https://data.oecd.org/ (acessed July 2023)
Plano Nacional de Logística Portuária (PNL). (2015). PNLP 2015: Relatório de metodologias. Brasília, Brazil: Ministério da Infraestrutura.
Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Bodirsky, B. L., Bonsch, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., & Stevanovic, M. (2021). Land-use futures in a changing climate: The role of integrated assessment modeling. Glob. Environ. Change, 66, 102215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002
Poore, J., & Nemecek, T. (2018). Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers. Science, 360(6392), 987–992. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaq0216
Pradhan, B. K., & Ghosh, J. (2019). Climate policy vs. agricultural productivity shocks in a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework: The case of a developing economy. Econ. Model., 77, 55–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.019
Rogelj, J., Shindell, D., Jiang, K., Fifita, S., Forster, P., Ginzburg, V., ... & Vilar, E. (2018). Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development. In Global warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC special report. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter2_High_Res.pdf
Sauer, S., & Leite, S. P. (2012). Agrarian structure, foreign investment in land, and land prices in Brazil. J. Peasant Stud., 39(3–4), 873–898 https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2012.686492
Serviço Florestal Brasileiro, & Sistema Nacional de Informações Florestais (SiCAR/SNIF). (2019). Reserva legal. https://snif.florestal.gov.br/pt-br/conservacao-das-florestass/184-reserva-legal (acessed jan 2024)
Siebers, P. O., Lim, Z. E., Figueredo, G. P., & Hey, J. (2020). An innovative approach to multi-method integrated assessment modelling of global climate change. J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul., 23(1), https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4209
Silva, B. de O., Moitinho, M. R., Panosso, A. R., Oliveira, D. M. da S., Montanari, R., Moraes, M. L. T., Milori, D. M. B. P., Bicalho, E. da S., & La Scala, N. (2024). Implications of converting native forest areas to agricultural systems on the dynamics of CO₂ emission and carbon stock in a Cerrado soil, Brazil. J. Environ. Manage., 358, 120796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120796
Soares-Filho, B. S., et al. (2014). Cracking Brazil's Forest Code. Science, 344(6182), 363–364. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1246663
Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport. (2022). Transport and climate change global status report (2nd ed.). https://unfccc.int/documents/461585
Thapa, A., Aryal, N., & Reba, M. L. (2025). Machine learning models for water quality: Predicting pollutant loads and assessing conservation practice's effectiveness in agricultural fields. Ecological Informatics, 92, 103479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103479
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). (2023). USDA agricultural projections to 2031. Washington, DC: USDA. https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/usda-agricultural-projections-to-2031.pdf
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). (2021). USDA Brazil: New plan for climate change adaptation and low carbon emission in agriculture. Washington, DC: USDA. https://fas.usda.gov/data/brazil-abc-plus-brazils-new-climate-change-adaptation-and-low-carbon-emission-agriculture-plan
Vaccaro, G. L. R., Longhi, A., Moutinho, M. H. C., Scavarda, A., Lopes, C. M., Reis, A. N. dos, Nunes, F., & Azevedo, D. (2018). Interrelationship among actors in ethanol production chain as a competitive and sustainable factor: The case of associative production and family-farming in southern Brazil. J. Clean. Prod, 196, 1239–1255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.06.036
Wang, S., Zhou, L., Luo, M., Huang, Y., & Li, Y. (2022). A system dynamics modeling for policy impact on green agriculture development in the Tibetan area of Sichuan, China. J. Clean. Prod., 371(20):133562 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133562
Wang, Z., Martha Jr., G. B., Liu, J., Lima, C. Z., & Hertel, T. W. (2024). Planned expansion of transportation infrastructure in Brazil has implications for the pattern of agricultural production and carbon emissions. Science of The Total Environment, 928, 172434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172434
Weyant, J. (2017). Some contributions of integrated assessment models of global climate change. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy, 11(1), 115–137 https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rew018
World Bank. (2022). Brazil infrastructure assessment (P174544): Synthesis report. Washington, DC: World Bank
World Bank. (2023). Brazil can be both richer and greener: Opportunities for climate action and growth. Washington, DC: World Bank.
World Resources Institute (WRI). (2023). A new tool for low-carbon agriculture in Brazil. Retrieved from https://www.wri.org/
Zaluski, P. R. da S. (2018). Análise do transporte intermodal da soja destinada à exportação, considerando os custos de emissões de CO2 no Brasil (Master's thesis, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Goiás, PUC GO). Goiás, Brazil.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Patrícia Regina da Silva Zaluski, Mauricio Uriona-Maldonado, Lucila Maria de Souza Campos
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors must have a written permission from any third-party materials used in the article, such as figures and graphics. The permission must explicitly allow authors to use the materials. The permission should be submitted with the article, as a supplementary file.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) after BJO&PM publishes it (See The Effect of Open Access).
